Member Blog: Pre-Rolls are Poised to Become the #1 Category in Canada – Will the Same Trends Follow in the US?
Earlier this year, we predicted that pre-rolls were destined to be the top-selling cannabis product by the end of this decade, and a new deep dive into the Canadian market has only further convinced us that pre-rolls are not only a cornerstone of the current market, but a major driver for future growth not only North of the Border, but in a federally legalized U.S. cannabis market as well.
That’s because thanks in part to a staggering growth rate of 606% in infused pre-rolls from January 2022 to February 2023, pre-rolls are currently on the verge of overtaking flower as the top product category in Canada’s cannabis industry.
Using data from cannabis analytics firm Headset, our new White Paper, “Pre-Roll Growth in the Canadian Market,” details how pre-rolls in Canada have grown more than 50% over the past 18 months, from a 20.7% market share in early 2022 to a 31.5% total market share in May 2023, with total sales in the category topping CAD$1 billion in 2022. At the same time, flower sales in Canada continue to drop, falling to just 35% of sales in May 2023, compared to 31.5% for pre-rolls.
With federal legalization believed to be on the horizon for the United States, Canada’s data stands out as a national system and gives us some insight into how the American market could respond to a federal program, as opposed to one that is regulated state-by-state.
Growth in Every Market
Sales of pre-rolls in all four of the provinces tracked by Headset saw large increases. Pre-roll sales saw 33% and 37% growth in Saskatchewan and Alberta, respectively, a nearly 54% growth in British Columbia and a whopping 69% increase in Ontario, the country’s most-populous province. In the U.S., pre-roll sales also continue to surge, growing to a 12.1% market share in the States.
The sales growth has been fueled in part by the rise of infused, or “connoisseur” pre-rolls, which combine a cannabis concentrate and flower into a single pre-roll cone. The result is a more potent pre-roll, often at a higher price point, which has helped push revenue totals even higher since Health Canada clarified its rules in late 2021 to clear the way for the product.
Consumers have responded, with infused pre-rolls seeing an eye-popping 1,426% growth rate from 2021 to 2022. The segment grew from just under 3% of the market at CAD$12.7 million in 2021 to nearly 30% and CAD$47.9 million by mid-2023. That’s more growth than any other pre-roll category except single-strain hybrids.
Keeping Price Points High
The rising popularity of infused pre-rolls, with their higher price point, has been a significant factor contributing to the increase in the average price of Canadian pre-rolls. Infused pre-roll sales jumped from 6.2% of total sales in January 2022 to 29.8% of sales by February 2023. This trend has been instrumental in maintaining the overall price of pre-rolls even as prices for flower and concentrates have decreased.
According to Headset data, in 2022, pre-roll products accounted for 27% of the new items introduced in the Canadian market, demonstrating a remarkable growth rate of 48.2% compared to 2021, second only to beverages. In response to the increasing demand in this category, a total of 1,870 new pre-roll products were launched in the Canadian market during that year.
The resilience of pre-roll prices can also partially be attributed to their manufactured nature and the unique attributes of infused pre-rolls. The demand for stronger pre-rolls, coupled with declining prices for flower and concentrates, has created a favorable environment for launching infused pre-roll products.
Additionally, automated pre-roll machinery continues to evolve, including new automated infused pre-roll machines, making it easier for manufacturers to produce large quantities of infused pre-rolls at a slight premium over regular pre-rolls, leading to the category’s rapid expansion.
Multi-Packs and Cross-Generational Appeal
Other insights from our report include a surge in pre-roll multi-packs, with 2- and 5-gram packs seeing an almost 400% growth over the past two years, and that the pre-roll category shows less price compression than any other segment of the market, as it does in the U.S. as well.
Part of the strength of the pre-roll segment is its cross-generational appeal. For example, the Ontario market is the largest and fastest-growing of Canada’s provinces. With revenues reaching CAD$440 million in 2022, Ontario accounts for almost half of all sales in Canada. And within Ontario, the wallet share of pre-rolls grew within every generational group through 2021, with Gen X and Millennials seeing the largest growth, at around 45% each.
Within the fastest-growing group of consumers in the industry, Gen Z (which in Canada is a larger cohort than the U.S. due to a lower age restriction for cannabis purchases), pre-roll sales increased with both male and female consumers. The wallet share of pre-rolls among female buyers grew more than 4% to 20.4% in 2021. For males, the increase was even larger, growing from 14.6% of wallet share to 19.7%.
Final Thoughts on Pre-Roll Growth
The main factors driving the huge growth in pre-rolls are:
- Increased pre-roll quality, as flower and concentrate prices drop, so companies can create a higher quality pre-roll at cheaper and cheaper prices.
- Reduced labor costs, as advancements in pre-roll machinery help companies scale production and bring in automation.
- Consumer buying patterns showing that customers want convenience and are consuming for recreational use, not health and wellness.
The next big trend in pre-rolls, which will push pre-rolls to the No. 1 sales category in the industry, is freshness. Competing in the future will mean better packaging and a better supply chain, so pre-rolls are always fresh at retail.
But with sales surging across both Canada and the U.S., now is the right time for producer/processors to launch or expand pre-roll lines, particularly infused pre-rolls and pre-roll multi-packs.
For more information on how you can capitalize on the latest trends in the pre-roll segment, contact the Pre-Roll Experts at Custom Cones USA.
Member Blog: Pre-Roll Market Industry Trends and Growth Potential
By Harrison Bard, Co-Founder and CEO, Custom Cones USA
Pre-Rolls More than a Trend
Having the ability to identify trends in the cannabis industry is vital for producers to build a successful brand, and the biggest trend in ther cannabis industry right now is pre-rolls. Growing at 12% YoY in the US and 38% YoY in Canada, pre-rolls are the fastest growing cannabis product in the world of legal cannabis, and it’s not close.
This trend could be chalked up to a sudden rise in popularity and as something that will decline once another hot trend appears; however, we believe that the rise of pre-rolls is more than just a flash in the pan. In fact, after looking over the sales data we received from Headset, we believe that pre-rolls will not only continue their growth, but they will become the bestselling cannabis products by 2030.
Here’s why!
Prices Fall, Sales Rise, Both Stabilize
Over the past few years, the wholesale price of flower has dropped dramatically in mature markets, and cheaper cannabis costs have allowed producers to source higher quality flower for their pre-rolls. Combined with the advances in pre-roll making machinery, quality pre-rolls are now able to be sold at a lower retail price, which has driven strong growth for the category.
As you can see from the graph, pre-roll sales have steadily increased as prices have fallen, but the last two years have seen both sales and prices begin to stabilize. The pre-roll segment that has seen the most growth during this time is infused pre-rolls. Customers love high THC percentages, and producers are happy to finally be able to offer it to them in an affordable pre-roll form.
Pre-Rolls have the Least Amount of Price Compression
It’s not just pre-roll prices that are falling. Prices are down across the board, but even though prices for all cannabis products declines over time, pre-rolls are showing the least amount of price compression. In other words, if you are in the business of selling cannabis, and you are worried about declining margins, pre-rolls are a category you should be expanding into to maintain and boost profitability.
You can also see from the graph that Canada has actually seen the average price of a pre-roll increase, but there is nuance to this data. This does not mean that pre-rolls are getting more expensive for Canadian consumers. This data shows just how popular infused pre-rolls are becoming. They are becoming so popular that people are choosing to buy them over regular, more affordable pre-rolls, and that change in buying habits has increased the average sales price for pre-rolls.
Pre-Roll Multi-Packs
Another interesting trend we see in the sales data is that pre-roll multi-packs have become extremely popular. In 2018, multi-packs of pre-rolls only made up 27.7% of the market in Oregon, Washington, and Colorado. By 2023, multi-packs make up 47.62% of the market—representing a growth of about 20% over 5 years. Also, Since 2021, we have seen an almost 400% growth in multi-packs that have a volume of 2 or 5 grams as well as steady growth across most other sizes.
Buying pre-rolls by the pack is a lot more convenient for consumers. It means not making a special trip to the dispensary every time a pre-roll is wanted. The rise in their popularity is a sign that consumers are investing in pre-rolls as a staple in their cannabis routine. Because they know they will continue to enjoy pre-rolls, they buy multiples at a time for convenience, and it’s this kind of product loyalty that moves a product from a trend into something more.
Wallet Share by Age
Another interesting thing about pre-rolls is that, when it comes to wallet share, they are the most consistent product segment across all age groups. Other products show a significant increase or decrease in popularity with each new generation; however, pre-rolls steadily hover between 12.8% and 14.5% in each group and even show a slight increase with the younger generations.
It’s also important to note the decline of flower with younger generations. Why this is significant is because, at their core, pre-rolls are a flower product, and they are not following the same decline in sales. They distinguish themselves from loose flower by providing consumers a way to enjoy their flower without extra paraphernalia. In this way, we think pre-rolls could start to eat into the flower market, as they better meet the consumption needs of flower customers.
Pre-Roll Attachment Rates
Another big reason why pre-rolls will remain a dominant product segment in the future is that they are the perfect add-on item at the point of sale. The data shows that, when a person walks into a dispensary, they will add-on a pre-roll 15.5% to 23.3% of the time. In fact, in all product segments, pre-rolls either have the highest attachment rate or are within a single percentage point of the leader.
In other words, no matter what a customer is interested in purchasing, it doesn’t take a lot of convincing to get them to add on a pre-roll. They’re reasonably priced, made with quality materials, and incredibly convenient. Whether they want to consume it right away or want to save it for later, pre-rolls have become something flower lovers like to have on-hand for whenever, and that makes it more than a trend. That makes it a staple.
Convenience Impacting Pre-Roll Purchasing
Cannabis is starting to make its way into mainstream culture. You can’t buy it at your local grocery store, like you can buy wine or cigarettes, but it’s out there. The legalization of cannabis has opened the door to innovation in the cannabis industry, and those innovations are starting to have an impact on everything—especially consumption.
Flower needs paraphernalia to be consumed, and, if you are just trying to enjoy cannabis, sometimes you just don’t want the hassle. Pre-Rolls are unique in that they offer the consumer flower as well as a way to consume it, so it’s not too much a leap to think that pre-roll could keep expanding and start eating into flower sales.
In this way, cannabis can be compared to tobacco. Even though people can buy loose tobacco and roll their own cigarettes or use a pipe, most people are buying pre-rolled products. Even though the tobacco quality, smoking experience, and price point can be better when you buy loose tobacco, most people are choosing the convenient option. It shouldn’t surprise us that cannabis starting to fall into this pattern as the market matures.
Final Thoughts on The Pre-Roll Market
The data lets us know that pre-rolls are doing amazing things when it comes to sales, but it is also giving us hints as to trends in consumption methods. Pre-rolls are a flower product, and it’s clear from the data that flower consumers are buying into the convenience of pre-rolls. This is more than just a trend, but a shift in the preferences around flower consumption. Because of this shift, we can see pre-rolls taking on a more prominent role as the cannabis industry continues its expansion.
For a more in-depth look at the pre-roll industry, be sure to check out the State of the Pre-Roll White Paper, and, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to the Pre-Roll Experts at Custom Cones USA.
