2018 NATIONAL CANNABIS INDUSTRY FORECAST

by Michelle Rutter, NCIA Government Relations Manager

With the beginning of 2018, we start another election year. Multiple states in the midwest are running medical cannabis ballot initiatives, while Vermont is set to become the first state to legalize adult-use cannabis through the state legislature. In Washington, D.C., policy moves at a slower pace, but with Attorney General Jeff Sessions in office, it’s important to remain vigilant. Let’s take a look at what may happen in cannabis policy across the country:

MEDICAL CANNABIS POLICY

UTAH

The Utah Patients Coalition (UPC) is leading a 2018 ballot campaign to establish a medical cannabis program. The initiative seeks to protect terminally and seriously ill patients with specific debilitating medical conditions, including HIV/AIDS, PTSD, and chronic pain, among others. In addition, the initiative allows for caretakers to administer medical cannabis and would issue four types of licenses if passed: cultivation facilities, processing facilities, independent testing laboratories, and dispensaries.
The Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Orrin Hatch (R-UT) has introduced a medical cannabis research bill, and has even said on the Senate floor that medical cannabis can be an alternative to opioids. Passing the 2018 ballot initiative in his home state of Utah will be critical to furthering advocates’ work at the federal level.
A recent poll done by the Salt Lake Tribune found that 3 in 4 Utahns support legalizing medical cannabis. The campaign must collect 113,143 signatures from registered voters in order to qualify for the ballot. As of October 2017, the coalition had already garnered 20,000 signatures.

MISSOURI

A group called New Approach Missouri has formed and is in the process of collecting signatures for a proposed constitutional amendment to their state constitution that would legalize medical cannabis. The initiative would create a statewide system for production and sale of medical cannabis and provides for limited and regulated patient cultivation. Interestingly, the initiative levies a four percent retail tax, but all revenue in excess of the cost of regulating the medical cannabis program will go towards Missouri’s veterans.
New Approach Missouri must to collect 160,199 valid signatures from registered voters in order to be placed on the ballot. As of December 2017, the campaign had collected roughly 100,000 signatures. A poll done in 2015 showed that 85% of Missourians support implementing a medical cannabis program.

OKLAHOMA

Oklahomans for Health is the proponent of the upcoming state question SQ788, which would create a medical cannabis program. Obtaining a state-issued medical marijuana card would require a board-certified physician’s signature, though there are no specific qualifying conditions. The measure would enact a seven percent tax on marijuana sales, with revenue financing regulatory costs. Any surplus would be distributed: 75% to the General Fund to be used for education, and 25% to the Oklahoma State Department of Health to be used for drug and alcohol rehabilitation.
The initiative has already qualified, and will appear on the ballot in November 2018. Polling data is scarce, however, a 2013 poll showed that 71% of Oklahomans supported legalizing medical cannabis.

SOUTH DAKOTA

A group known as New Approach South Dakota is behind an effort to legalize medical cannabis in 2018. The group was also hoping to submit signatures to legalize adult-use cannabis, but was unsuccessful. The measure would set an excise tax on marijuana that would include a $50 per ounce tax on cannabis flower for buyers, and would have other taxes apply to buying immature plants and other parts of the cannabis plant.
In November 2017, New Approach South Dakota submitted roughly 15,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot- that’s just 1,000 more than required. The state hopes to review submitted ballot initiatives in the coming months.

ADULT-USE CANNABIS POLICY

MICHIGAN

The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol has officially submitted ballot language to the State of Michigan that would legalize consumption and possession of marijuana for adults 21 and over in Michigan. The proposal enacts an excise tax on marijuana at the retail level in addition to the standard state sales tax and provides for state regulators to grant business licenses for cultivators, processors, testing facilities, secure transporters, retail stores and microbusinesses.
In November 2017, the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol turned in more than 360,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot– that’s 100,000 signatures beyond the 252,000 required by the state. Polling done in early 2017 showed that 57% of Michiganders would support legalizing cannabis.

VERMONT

Vermont is poised to make history and become the first state to legalize adult-use cannabis through the state legislature in early 2018. In December 2017, Vermont House Speaker Mitzi Johnson (D) said, “It will be up for a vote in early January. I expect that it likely will pass in early January.”
The state came incredibly close to passing language that would have legalized adult-use cannabis back in 2017, however, the legislature was unable to make changes Governor Phil Scott (R) requested before the session ended. The Governor has since stated that he is “comfortable” with signing legalization legislation.

OHIO

The group that unsuccessfully ran a ballot initiative in 2015 to legalize cannabis in Ohio is making a comeback in 2018. In December 2017, a team announced that they will work to place a cannabis legalization measure on the ballot in 2018. Known as the Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Amendment, the measure would allow people over the age of 21 to purchase and use cannabis legally. The amendment would also create a taxed and regulated cultivation, processing, and sales system.
Valid signatures from 305,592 registered voters are required before July 4, 2018, in order to qualify the measure for the ballot.

NEW JERSEY

Unlike New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie (R) , Governor-Elect Phil Murphy (D) is setting a positive tone on cannabis in the state. Murphy has advocated for legalization multiple times, and even made one of his campaign promises to legalize adult-use cannabis in his first 100 days in office.
Democrats in the state legislature have already introduced multiple bills to tax and regulate adult-use cannabis, predicted to be worth more than $1 billion in the state. The full legalization bill currently being considered is S3195, sponsored by state Senator Nicholas Scutari (D). Sen. Stephen Sweeney (D), the state senate’s president, has already promised to pass the bill within the first three months of Murphy’s administration.
Recent polling shows that over 60% of New Jersey residents support legalizing cannabis.

CANNABIS DECRIMINALIZATION

VIRGINIA

In November 2017, voters in Virginia elected Ralph Northam (D) as their next Governor. Northam made cannabis decriminalization a centerpiece of his gubernatorial campaign, and has even spoken about the hemp cultivation and the medical benefits of cannabis.
Virginia lawmakers considered but did not act on decriminalization legislation during the 2017 session. However, with the State Crime Commission conducting a study on the effects of decriminalization in the state at the request of the Republican Senate majority leader, advocates remain hopeful in 2018.

FEDERAL CANNABIS POLICY

While 2018 is shaping up to be a busy year for cannabis policy at the state level, things will likely move slowly in Washington, D.C. NCIA will be working to ensure language protecting medical cannabis patients (the Rohrabacher-Blumenauer amendment, formerly known as the Rohrabacher-Farr amendment) remains in federal law. NCIA will also be lobbying to expand that language to apply to adult use states (McClintock-Polis amendment) and to include a banking amendment that would allow cannabis businesses access to financial services (Heck amendment).
As leadership in both houses of Congress continue to negotiate the final version of the tax reform bill, there will be opportunities next year for Congress to make additions and changes on future individual tax legislation. NCIA will be looking at any possible avenues to have 280E legislation be included in future bills if the opportunity arises. Action on the cannabis banking bill is unlikely in 2018, however, NCIA will continue to advocate for a committee hearing, gather more cosponsors on HR 2215: The SAFE (Secure and Fair Enforcement) Banking Act, and work to identify a Republican lead sponsor for the bill in 2019.
NCIA will also be working to ensure that the Cole Memo remains in place. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has recently said that the Department of Justice will be reviewing current memos, and that “Guidance documents can be used to explain existing law… but they should not be used to change the law or to impose new standards to determine compliance with the law… This Department of Justice will not use guidance documents to circumvent the rule-making process, and we will proactively work to rescind existing guidance documents that go too far.” While Attorney General Sessions is very clearly personally opposed to cannabis, it’s important to note that personal feelings are not official Justice Department policy.
In addition, NCIA is working behind the scenes to educate the Trump Administration on cannabis policy, maintain the Cole Memo, protect cannabis patients and consumers, and make positive remarks regarding medical cannabis in 2018.

2016: What’s Next?

by Michelle Rutter, Government Relations Coordinator

This year is arguably the most crucial yet for the burgeoning cannabis industry, especially as it relates to policy. Although NCIA primarily advocates for cannabis reform at the federal level, what happens in each individual state is vital to the stances Members of Congress take on our issues.

Members of Congress care deeply about issues that directly affect their specific state or district. It’s imperative that more states enact cannabis reform legislation so that more Members have a vested interest in protecting their constituents. While cannabis reform is sweeping the nation at an almost unprecedented rate, it takes time for politicians in Washington, D.C., to catch up with public opinion back home. If all of the federal lawmakers representing just the 15 states mentioned below were to vote positively on pro-cannabis legislation, it would add up to more than 180 Representatives and nearly 30 Senators.

Take a look below and see what’s coming up next in 2016. Remember that by becoming a member of NCIA, you are adding your voice to the coordinated and unified campaign at the federal level to allow cannabis businesses access to financial services, fix tax section 280E, and ultimately end federal cannabis prohibition.

The United States of Cannabis

Arizona activists remain ahead of schedule and have nearly gathered the 150,000 signatures needed to put the state’s Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol initiative on the November 2016 ballot. (The campaign ultimately aims to collect 230,000 in order to insure against signature drop-off.) It’s estimated that Arizona’s adult-use market could be worth up to $480 million.

With a multi-billion-dollar cannabis industry in California alone, passing an adult-use legalization initiative in the state is vital to ending federal prohibition. The most prominent full retail initiative gathering signatures for the November 2016 election is the Adult Use of Marijuana Act, which is backed by billionaire Sean Parker and the Marijuana Policy Project.

Legalize Maine and the Marijuana Policy Project have joined forces to legalize adult-use cannabis in 2016. Legalize Maine has already collected 80,000 signatures. Only 61,000 signatures are necessary to place the measure on a statewide ballot, but the organization’s goal is 95,000, to insure against drop-off. The deadline to submit signatures is February 1st.

Last August, a pair of cannabis advocacy groups separately filed paperwork to get adult-use legalization on the 2016 ballot in Massachusetts. The state recently confirmed that a measure to legalize recreational cannabis next year has enough valid signatures to force the legislature to consider the measure. If the legislature decides to pass, then the campaign will have to collect another 10,792 signatures to formally make the November ballot.

There’s no question that adult-use legalization will be on the ballot this year in Nevada. Initiative Petition 1, which would tax and regulate marijuana similarly to alcohol, has been certified for the 2016 ballot. Backers had previously collected nearly 200,000 signatures to either force legislators to enact their initiative or put it on the ballot. When state lawmakers abstained from voting on the issue, the measure was automatically forwarded to this year’s ballot for a popular vote.

In Florida, the group United for Care received clearance from the state Supreme Court for a 2016 ballot measure that would legalize medical marijuana. The group nearly succeeded in legalizing medical marijuana in 2014, garnering 58% of the vote but falling barely short of the state’s constitutionally mandated 60% margin needed to pass,

The nation’s capital continues to debate cannabis. In December’s federal budget bill, the taxation and regulation of marijuana in Washington, D.C., was blocked by Congress again, though possessing and gifting cannabis remains legal in the city.

This month, Hawaii will begin accepting applications for medical cannabis businesses. The bill signed into law last summer opens the door for up to 16 dispensaries on the islands.

It was recently announced that Illinois saw approximately $1.7 million in medical cannabis sales during November and December of 2015. There are already petitions being circulated in the state that would expand the law’s qualifying conditions.

Maryland will award cannabis cultivation, processing, and dispensary licenses this summer. Industry advocates were pleased with the amount of interest the state’s program garnered: more than 1,000 applications were submitted.

Officials in Michigan have approved language for three different adult-use cannabis legalization initiatives for the 2016 ballot. In order to have the best chance of passing, it’s important for these groups to coalesce behind one initiative.

At the end of 2015, New Hampshire began issuing medical marijuana cards to qualifying patients. It’s expected that the state will open medical dispensaries in 2016.

After a long and arduous journey, New York’s medical cannabis program became operational this month. The cannabis industry expects the program and the law’s qualifying conditions to expand this year.

In the first week of 2016, Oregon began accepting adult-use cannabis business license applications. The state has no limit on how many licenses they will decide to award.

Vermont may become the first state to legalize adult-use cannabis through the legislative process in 2016. The proposed bill would allow for up to 86 storefronts and five different business license types.

Bonus: Election 2016 – Yes, We Canna

As we all know, a new president will be elected this November, and with that a new administration will assume power next January. It is very crucial that Congress pass more pro-cannabis legislation before then.

It’s probable that Attorney General Loretta Lynch will be replaced in 2016 or early 2017. This is important because it is the Department of Justice that enforces and prosecutes federal marijuana laws.

Another possibility for 2016 is that the acting head of the Drug Enforcement Administration, Chuck Rosenberg, could be replaced as well. Rosenberg is notorious for his gaffe last year when he called marijuana “probably” less dangerous than heroin.

On New Year’s Eve, officials from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration posted a notice on the Federal Register that calls for a report “presenting the state of the science on substance use, addiction and health” to be released in 2016. Industry advocates are hopeful that this report could be the first sign of re- or de-scheduling cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act.

During 2016, NCIA will continue working with D.C.-based public affairs firms Heather Podesta + Partners, and Jochum Shore & Trossevin PC to magnify our efforts to address the industry’s top federal priorities: access to basic banking services and fair federal taxation.

In addition to NCIA’s lobbying and advocacy efforts, NCIA exists to connect and educate our members on all facets of the cannabis industry. Our industry supports tens of thousands of jobs, tens of millions in tax revenue, and billions in economic activity in the United States. Our core mission is to ensure that our members are treated like businesses in any other American industry. Join NCIA today to get involved and be a part of the cannabis revolution!

Join us for our 6th Annual NCIA Member Lobby Days in Washington, D.C. on May 12 & 13, 2016.